Daniel Freer, October 15, 2020
In the leadup to the 2020 US election, I have started to become interested in voter turnout, one aspect of the election that hasn’t been overly sensationalized by the media. Ironically, the more I dug, the more I began to realize that perhaps it should be sensationalized, as high voter turnout can have many underlying implications, such as severe idealogical division and fear about the future of the country.
Let’s take a historical perspective. There are a few things to note in the chart below from the United States Election Project (where Wikipedia gets its voter turnout data), which plots voter turnout in the US throughout its entire history. The most relevant note to predicting turnout in the 2020 election is the sharp uptick in voter turnout at the end of thte graph, in the midterm election of 2018. Voter turnout in 2018 increased to 50.0% as compared to 36.7% in 2014, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. While there have been substantial changes in midterm turnout at various points throughout history, this is the first 10-percent swing in turnout since the drop between 1938 and 1942 (from 46.6 to 33.9%), in the throes of World War 2. However, it was the first 10-percent increase in midterm turnout since… wait for it… 1796.
You could claim this uptick is a fluke, and assume that things will go back to normal. But recent reports have suggeseted that the 2020 election will also have increased turnout, with voter enthusiasm off the charts. Even before Covid, polling from Fox News showed that 82% of respondents were at least very interested in the election, which has increased to 89% in October. Of course, it is highly unlikely that 89% of the voting-eligible population actually comes out to vote, but this poll, and other polls like it, still indicate that voter enthusiasm in 2020 is on the order of 20 or 30 percentage points higher than it was in… say… the year 2000. Based on this, 2020 could be the first year since 1900 (before women had the right to vote, I might add) in which voter turnout reaches above 70% in the United States. And because previous voters are more likely to vote again, this voting bump is unlikely to fade quickly, which could lead to a long sustained period of high voter turnout.
And this makes sense. Tensions in the United States are incredibly high right now, with people on the right claiming a Biden administration will turn the US into a communist country, and people on the left saying Trump wants to preside over a fascist white nationalist regime like Hitler. People are dying from Covid, and protesting in the streets. It’s only natural that when people feel so strongly about something, they want to act.
From the same chart above, you can also see some small bumps in voter turnout that roughly correspond to the Great Depression (1929-1940) and the Civil Rights movement (1952-1968), two periods of great struggle for the United States. But the “bump” in voter turnout during these times was only about 10 percent, and overall turnout never reached the levels achieved in the 2018 midterms, and the expected turnout in 2020.
Therefore, if voting in 2020 reaches above 70%, the best historical comparison may become the years between 1840 and 1900. These are the years in which voter turnout was highest in United States history, a long sustained period of voter turnout higher than 70%, and at times reaching above 80%.
So what was happening between 1840 and 1900? The first thing to come to mind is, of course, the Civil War, which started in 1861 after the election of Abraham Lincoln. But even in 1840, the abolitionist movement was in full swing, and the country was greatly divided by idealogy. From 1840 to 1860, no single president held office for longer than four years, as swing voters oscillated between the Democrats and the Whigs until the demise of the Whigs after the 1852 election. With the Whigs gone, several new political parties began to gain prominence. Eventually, the Republicans emerged from the smoke with Lincoln’s win in 1860 and held onto presidential power until 1884. Shortly thereafter, voter enthusiasm began to decline once again.
Then what does this mean for 2020, if history were to repeat itself? The country would go through a long period of uncertainty, with shifts in power every election cycle. Eventually, one politcal party would be destroyed, and a new party would emerge that would define the country for years to come. There may be a civil war, in which those who reject the idealogy of the new political party believe the only way to stand up for themselves is to spill blood. This may seem farfetched, but based on what I’ve been hearing and seeing, I’m beginning to think that such things might just happen.
Now of course, all of this is just speculation. Turnout could end up being down, especially with the pandemic looming. The jump seen in voter turnout in 2018 was unprecedented in modern times, and we can’t truly compare the 1840 US to the 2020 US. There were only 26 states in 1840, and only white men could vote. But no matter what the result of the 2020 election is, the idealogical fighting isn’t over. In fact, it’s only the beginning.
As a closing thought, I would like to reach out to my fellow Americans. A period of great and unprecedented change has been thrust upon us, whether we like it or not. If you care about the future of the United States, then vote. I hope that everybody votes, and I’m glad that so many people now believe that their vote matters. It does. But an increase in voter turnout doesn’t necessarily indicate that certainty and peace are coming. In fact, history has shown us that it might indicate the opposite. Be prepared.