Daniel Freer, Saturday, March 21, 2020
It has now been 2 months since the coronavirus got really serious in China, and it’s starting to get really serious everywhere else. First was Europe, where Italy has now already reported more deaths from it than the entire country of China, despite having half of the total confirmed cases, though this number will continue to increase in Italy for quite some time. In the US, there are currently about 20,000 total cases, but increasing rapidly.
But there is something we have to realize about these rising numbers: they do not, in any way, reflect how many people actually have the virus. They only reflect how many people have been tested for the virus, and have been confirmed to have it. Because there often hasn’t been enough testing thus far, this can be looked at from two perspectives:
1) Looking at these numbers, it is quite possible that no new people have actually been infected in the last few days. Even though these numbers say, for example, that 6,000 new cases were confirmed yesterday in the US, this is only because more people are being tested per day than they were the day before, creating more leads, and therefore more testing. If this is true, then the number of confirmed cases will begin to level off soon.
2) There are certainly more people who have the virus than are being reported, because not everybody has been tested yet. Even if everybody self-isolates, this pandemic will still get worse because there are people who already have the disease who do not know it, or who don’t want to be tested for fear of medical expenses (especially in the US). And, if they are self-isolating at home, there may still be transmission within houses and families. Without self-isolation, there is no way to ensure that people you come into contact with do not have the virus
These points are still valid in most places, like Italy and the US, but no longer apply to the same extent in China, where people are constantly being tested at least at a superficial level. Therefore, the numbers they report are probably the most reliable, despite the comments I read on my facebook feed indicating that China is obviously lying about the number of infected they have. I honestly don’t know where these people get their information, or why China would want to do that, but I do know that the US president has openly stated that he wants to keep the numbers of confirmed cases in the US low, regardless of the true situation on the ground.
The heroes of this story are the people on the ground: doctors, nurses, physician assistants. Even those in unrelated departments are having to work harder to cover for those who are utterly overwhelmed, not only with people who actually have the virus, but also with people who have some symptoms and do not have it, and people who are elderly or with preexisting conditions that would be heavily at risk if they did get the disease. To these people I offer any amount of gratitude I can possibly muster.
The villains of this story are the people in power trying to profit off of it, of which there are many. It was just reported that several (the most recent report I read said 4, though it is most likely more) US senators sold their stocks after a closed-door meeting about the coronavirus, while still attempting to reassure the public (but not their donors) about their safety and financial security. One of these was Senator Richard Burr, from North Carolina, my home state, who specifically wrote an op-ed for Fox News telling the public that the US was completely prepared for the coronavirus, and that there was nothing to worry about, just before selling 1.7 million USD in stocks.
While it is easy to criticize such a move as hypocritical, it is more difficult to know for sure what you would do in that situation. Either you warn the public and sell off your stock, which may create panic and thus, unintended consequences, or you reassure the public and keep your stock, watching your own wealth plummet down the garbage chute when you know you could have done something about it. Either of these are certainly more honorable, but one could understand how Burr would take the selfish “middle ground” in this scenario of not creating panic, while also maintaining his own wealth. It is understandable, but not necessarily acceptable for a public servant. Then again, I’m curious how many in the national media have sold off stock just before publishing pieces that would create more fear and uncertainty in the US economy.
After this pandemic is over, the world will be a different place. Even if we only hear good news from here on out, there are a few things that have been revealed, which will change how the world is viewed as we move forward:
- My assumptions about the medical preparedness of countries around the world were incorrect. I had always assumed that European countries would be best prepared to handle something of this sort, as they always boast about how great their health systems are in comparison to the United States’. Living in London and talking with doctors, and even regular civilians, it is easy to see that the NHS is overwhelmed even in normal times. This is mostly in agreement between members of all political parties, though their solutions to it are different. Now, in a time of crisis, how will it cope? Europe has already had more infections and nearly twice as many deaths as China. And it is still getting worse in Europe and the US, while most new cases in China are resulting from people flying back to China from either Europe or the US. Of course, painting all European countries with a broad brush isn’t really fair, but the same is true for China, which also has a huge amount of diversity, and a higher population than all of Europe put together. If we compare the worst regions of each, then Italy has had over 4000 deaths, while Hubei province (with a similar population to Italy) has only had about 3000, and has already levelled off. Keep in mind that China had to deal with this crisis first, without any prior knowledge, while European countries and the US had already seen China dealing with the virus for over a month, and could have learned lessons from their handling. For the US, their handling of this crisis is still unclear, but so far to me it looks better than Europe, and likely worse than China. The US may have an advantage in that public transport is not as widely used in the US, which minimized close contact between people in the early stages of the crisis. We will only be able to know for sure, however, once this all is said and done, as the situation changes rapidly and unpredictably.
- Willingness to trust authorities is important. This, of course, doesn’t mean you should blindly trust all authorities. But one of the reasons China, and South Korea, have seemingly managed to mostly control their outbreaks is because people listened to those in charge, and because the people in charge seemed to genuinely have the best interest of the people at heart. Of course there are some things that can be criticized, but it seems that this pandemic was controlled through a consistent message from a trusted authority, and compliance of the people. Many European countries and the US, on the other hand, have so far not had a consistent message, which has led to non-compliance, and further spread of the disease. The UK government initially planned to achieve “herd immunity”, in which 70% of the population of the UK would be infected by the virus, thus providing immunity to all of the rest. Seemingly healthy people were encouraged to continue on in their daily lives, and if the virus spread then it would all be okay, as young and healthy people usually don’t get seriously ill because of it. Since then, which was only about a week ago, the policy has changed and now the country appears to be on lockdown. It would be easy to get whiplash. In the US, the situation is different in that there is no universally trusted authority. Half of the country only listens to what President Trump says, and the other half of the country doesn’t listen to anything President Trump says. Trump and the national government have not had consistent messaging, sliding from saying that the virus is nothing and would go away naturally, to now finally taking some of the necessary measures to ensure the safety of people. On the other side, national media like CNBC and CNN have had a consistent message: FEAR, FEAR, FEAR. Of course, some of this is warranted, but regardless of the consistent messaging from these networks, the Trump half of the country had already written them off as “fake news”, and so would not listen to a word they said. Now that Trump is also admitting that this pandemic is a serious issue, I’m wondering if some of his supporters wish that they had listened to these networks earlier.
- Be selfish, but not that selfish. One of the most interesting things to come out of this crisis, or any crisis, really, are the stories of people hoarding supplies such as toilet paper for themselves. Again, this has happened in Europe and the US, but I haven’t heard of any such stories from China. Then again, being concerned and aware of your own health may be one of the best ways to stop the spread of the virus, as if you ensure that you don’t get the virus, you are also ensuring that you don’t pass it to anyone else. US media has repeatedly stated that wearing masks is not necessary, but the only reason for this is because they know that if they say that masks help prevent disease spread, people will run to every store that sells them, buy all of the masks for themselves, and not leave any for medical staff or truly sick people that need it more. Here’s the truth: masks definitely help stop the spread of not only this disease, but all diseases. Disease most often enters your body through your mouth and nose, and therefore any barrier between these mucus membranes and the outside world helps protect you. Media also says to stop touching your face, and for me one of the most effective ways of not touching my face is by putting a mask on it. In China, Korea, and Japan, everyone has been wearing masks outside for the past few months, which has likely been another contributing factor to their control of the disease. But in these countries masks are abundant, so there is no danger that medical professionals will not have enough. Even with this abundance, production of masks in China has increased during this pandemic, and they have offered sale or donations to other countries. So yes, wear a mask if you’re going out. Use toilet paper. Do whatever you need to do to make yourself feel safe and healthy for the next few days. But don’t prevent others from doing the same.
- Technology has made us crazy, and also kept us sane. Of course, with the spread of information via technology it is likely that fewer people will die, but how has it affected our mental health? I don’t know about you, but since 2 months ago, I’ve been checking the status of Covid-19 every single day, more than once a day. It has always been at the forefront of my mind, because my wife is Chinese and has family there, because I was (and still am) planning on moving there soon, and because I feared it could spread across the globe. Having the numbers and the media at my fingertips, on my phone, on my laptop, has made me constantly worry about this crisis. Some nights recently I haven’t been able to sleep because of it. If technology wasn’t so pervasive, would the same be true? Or would we all just continue on with our lives, perhaps not even knowing there was a novel coronavirus, assuming our sickness was just a flu? From a different perspective, technology has also provided us with a lot of distractions, and also comfort in a lot of ways. Sometimes, fear and stress comes more from uncertainty and the unknown, thinking about things that you cannot know and cannot change. Now, at least we know. Aside from this, I’ve been able to video chat with my parents, catch up with old friends, stream shows online. These things have kept me sane. Funny enough, this isn’t so different from what I would have chosen to do in my spare time even without a global crisis. I’m having a virtual party tomorrow night, and couldn’t be more excited. And beyond this, technology has allowed many millions of people to continue working remotely almost uninhibited. I, as a researcher and computer scientist, do the majority of my work on a computer anyway. This is clearly not true for everyone, but the recent improvements in technology have allowed companies around the world to work at maybe half efficiency during lockdown, as opposed to screeching to a complete halt. Now, if we look to the future, imagine in the next global pandemic if you can order food, toilet paper, etc. from an app on your phone, and it will be brought to you by an autonomous robot. No ability of people to hoard supplies. No need to go out. No danger of being infected. Of course, this may sound bleak to those of us that love the outdoors, but there are other arguments for this type of technology as well.
- Ignorance, and racism, is still a problem. There have been numerous cases in Europe and in the US of violent attacks on East Asians simply because they look like they might be from China, and especially if they are wearing masks. President Trump has actively tried to blame China, and then Europe, for spreading Covid-19 to the US, refusing to take any responsibility. These actions are not only utterly unhelpful, but could also be dangerous for both Asians abroad and citizens, no matter what their ethnicity. If you think somebody is dangerous and may spread disease, why would you repeatedly touch their face with your fists? If you don’t have enough medical equipment and may need help from other countries (either European or Asian), why would you insult them and blame them rather than simply asking? Even simple things can lead to confusion and higher risk of spread. For example, I was recently on a group tour in Mexico, and was asked where Blair was from by a nice American woman. When I said China, she looked very surprised and a little bit worried, and asked if she was from Wuhan. I said no, and asked where she was from, and she proudly told me she was from near Seattle in Washington state, which at the time had by far the most Covid-19 cases in the US (I think it was over 100). She still kept her distance from Blair. Not racist, not really a problem, but from this interaction you’d think that Blair was the more “dangerous” of the two of them, despite the fact that Blair’s hometown has only had 19 total cases over the course of the crisis. Be respectful to people, don’t make assumptions, and look into yourself and your own problems before drawing attention to those of other people.
So, that pretty much sums up my feelings about the current health crisis caused by Covid-19. As I’ve said before, the situation is constantly changing, and so will my thoughts about it as new information comes to light. I think that it’s important that we stop pointing fingers and blaming others for things that have happened in the past, and instead think about how to move forward as one planet fighting against a common enemy: Covid-19.